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To support these rules of thumb, we share multiple real examples, most being shared in a public paper for the first time. Some rules of thumb have previously been stated, such as “speed matters,” but we describe the assumptions in the experimental design and share additional experiments that improved our understanding of where speed matters more: certain areas of the web page are more critical.

This paper serves two goals. First, it can guide experimenters with rules of thumb that can help them optimize their sites. Second, it provides the KDD community with new research challenges on the applicability, exceptions, and extensions to these, one of the goals for KDD’s industrial track.

Statistical Inference in Two-stage Online Controlled Experiments with Treatment Selection and Validation Alex Deng, Tianxi Li and Yu Guo

Online controlled experiments, also called A/B testing, have been established as the mantra for data-driven decision making in many web-facing companies. A/B Testing support decision making by directly comparing two variants at a time. It can be used for comparison between (1) two candidate treatments and (2) a candidate treatment and an established control. In practice, one typically runs an experiment with multiple treatments together with a control to make decision for both purposes simultaneously. This is known to have two issues. First, having multiple treatments increases false positives due to multiple comparison. Second, the selection process causes an upward bias in estimated effect size of the best observed treatment. To overcome these two issues, a two stage process is recommended, in which we select the best treatment from the first screening stage and then run the same experiment with only the selected best treatment and the control in the validation stage. Traditional application of this two-stage design often focus only on results from the second stage. In this paper, we propose a general methodology for combining the first screening stage data together with validation stage data for more sensitive hypothesis testing and more accurate point estimation of the treatment effect. Our method is widely applicable to existing online controlled experimentation systems.

Online Controlled Experiments at Large Scale Ron Kohavi, Alex Deng, Brian Frasca, Toby Walker, Ya Xu, Nils Pohlmann

Web-facing companies, including Amazon, eBay, Etsy, Facebook, Google, Groupon, Intuit, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Netflix, Shop Direct, StumbleUpon, Yahoo, and Zynga use online controlled experiments to guide product development and accelerate innovation. At Microsoft’s Bing, the use of controlled experiments has grown exponentially over time, with over 200 concurrent experiments now running on any given day. Running experiments at large scale requires addressing multiple challenges in three areas: cultural/organizational, engineering, and trustworthiness. On the cultural and organizational front, the larger organization needs to learn the reasons for running controlled experiments and the tradeoffs between controlled experiments and other methods of evaluating ideas. We discuss why negative experiments, which degrade the user experience short term, should be run, given the learning value and long-term benefits. On the engineering side, we architected a highly scalable system, able to handle data at massive scale: hundreds of concurrent experiments, each containing millions of users. Classical testing and debugging techniques no longer apply when there are millions of live variants of the site, so alerts are used to identify issues rather than relying on heavy up-front testing. On the trustworthiness front, we have a high occurrence of false positives that we address, and we alert experimenters to statistical interactions between experiments. The Bing Experimentation System is credited with having accelerated innovation and increased annual revenues by hundreds of millions of dollars, by allowing us to find and focus on key ideas evaluated through thousands of controlled experiments. A 1% improvement to revenue equals $10M annually in the US, yet many ideas impact key metrics by 1% and are not well estimated a-priori. The system has also identified many negative features that we avoided deploying, despite key stakeholders’ early excitement, saving us similar large amounts.

Selinda Adventure Trails, Botswana

Perspectives change when you become one with Africa, navigating an ancient waterway in the time-old tradition of the great explorers, seeing the world with new eyes... This is a unique opportunity to experience total immersion in the essence of wilderness. More about Selinda Adventure Trails

When Africa calls, she speaks to your heart. She whispers of wonders unseen and a silence that talks to your soul. Answer the call on a safari that goes beyond an expedition into the wild. It is a journey of preservation, protection and empowerment. Discover Africa as it was meant to be seen on a Great Plains Conservation safari. Change your life. Change their world. Welcome... Cole Haan Womens Sadie Wedge 40MM Pump Roccia Snake Q2aS4

Zarafa Camp, Botswana

A retreat of unparalleled luxury and wonder. It is here, under our giant ebony tree, that your days of exploration begin and starlit nights end. It is where legends unfold and the silence is broken only by the beating heart of Africa. More about Zarafa Camp

Zarafa Dhow Suite, Botswana

We invite you to an African oasis like no other. At Zarafa you will experience the rare combination of absolute luxury and infinitebeauty in one of Africa's last great wildernesses. Will this be your journey's end? Or its beginning? More about Zarafa Dhow Suite

ol Donyo Lodge, Kenya

In the shadow of Kilimanjaro a special place beckons. Rolling hills frame endless plains and nature keeps pace with eternity in a breathtaking mosaic of living colour. Here we shared a dream, one which we now share with you... More about ol Donyo Lodge

Selinda Camp, Botswana

A corner of Africa where earth’s elements meet - gently flowing waters bringing life to the parched earth, soft breezes fanning a sea of grass, the flicker of the fire as you gaze at a blanket of stars... Home for your soul. NIKE Womens Air Max 90 Ultra 20 Flyknit Casual Shoe College Navy/College Navy pSYe0

Mara Plains Camp, Kenya

Kenya’s Maasai Mara... Life and death take on new meaning here and Africa's contradictions - her timeless beauty and raw brutality - make sense. Resistance is futile as the magic of this place captures your imagination, never to let it go. More about Mara Plains Camp

Duba Explorers Camp, Botswana

Witness an age-old battle played out in a wilderness without end, where survival hangs perpetually in the balance. This is Duba Explorers Camp, in the heart of the Okavango Delta... Home of legendary lions and those who would protect them for generations to come. More about Duba Explorers Camp

Duba Plains Camp, Botswana

An intimate, traditional space where hearts and spirits find inspiration in a history rich with extraordinary wildlife stories… Alegria Mens Aaron SlipOn Yellow Suede ris4DOUhK

Duba Plains Suite, Botswana

A wildlife connoisseur’s getaway with views horizon to horizon across the flood plains filled with iconic African wildlife species… More about Duba Plains Suite

Selinda Explorers Camp, Botswana

Return to the time of Livingstone and Selous, when Africa was alive with possibility and hearts were filled with the spirit of discovery... Experience the luxury of simplicity, the thrill of authenticity and the true call of the wild. More about Selinda Explorers

Selinda Adventure Trails, Botswana

Perspectives change when you become one with Africa, navigating an ancient waterway in the time-old tradition of the great explorers, seeing the world with new eyes... This is a unique opportunity to experience total immersion in the essence of wilderness. More about Selinda Adventure Trails

When Africa calls, she speaks to your heart. She whispers of wonders unseen and a silence that talks to your soul. Answer the call on a safari that goes beyond an expedition into the wild. It is a journey of preservation, protection and empowerment. Discover Africa as it was meant to be seen on a Great Plains Conservation safari. Change your life. Change their world. Welcome... Book Your Journey

Protecting Africa’s last pockets of pristine wilderness is more than just a philosophy or the passion that drives us… it is our way of life. You, our guests, are our partners in this lifestyle choice and every journey you take with us makes a difference, contributing directly to conservation and communities, helping to save big cats and other critically important African wildlife. Our camps are a testament to what we have achieved together on this incredible path we have chosen.

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