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To support these rules of thumb, we share multiple real examples, most being shared in a public paper for the first time. Some rules of thumb have previously been stated, such as “speed matters,” but we describe the assumptions in the experimental design and share additional experiments that improved our understanding of where speed matters more: certain areas of the web page are more critical.

This paper serves two goals. First, it can guide experimenters with rules of thumb that can help them optimize their sites. Second, it provides the KDD community with new research challenges on the applicability, exceptions, and extensions to these, one of the goals for KDD’s industrial track.

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Alex Deng, Tianxi Li and Yu Guo

Online controlled experiments, also called A/B testing, have been established as the mantra for data-driven decision making in many web-facing companies. A/B Testing support decision making by directly comparing two variants at a time. It can be used for comparison between (1) two candidate treatments and (2) a candidate treatment and an established control. In practice, one typically runs an experiment with multiple treatments together with a control to make decision for both purposes simultaneously. This is known to have two issues. First, having multiple treatments increases false positives due to multiple comparison. Second, the selection process causes an upward bias in estimated effect size of the best observed treatment. To overcome these two issues, a two stage process is recommended, in which we select the best treatment from the first screening stage and then run the same experiment with only the selected best treatment and the control in the validation stage. Traditional application of this two-stage design often focus only on results from the second stage. In this paper, we propose a general methodology for combining the first screening stage data together with validation stage data for more sensitive hypothesis testing and more accurate point estimation of the treatment effect. Our method is widely applicable to existing online controlled experimentation systems.

Online Controlled Experiments at Large Scale Ron Kohavi, Alex Deng, Brian Frasca, Toby Walker, Ya Xu, Nils Pohlmann

Web-facing companies, including Amazon, eBay, Etsy, Facebook, Google, Groupon, Intuit, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Netflix, Shop Direct, StumbleUpon, Yahoo, and Zynga use online controlled experiments to guide product development and accelerate innovation. At Microsoft’s Bing, the use of controlled experiments has grown exponentially over time, with over 200 concurrent experiments now running on any given day. Running experiments at large scale requires addressing multiple challenges in three areas: cultural/organizational, engineering, and trustworthiness. On the cultural and organizational front, the larger organization needs to learn the reasons for running controlled experiments and the tradeoffs between controlled experiments and other methods of evaluating ideas. We discuss why negative experiments, which degrade the user experience short term, should be run, given the learning value and long-term benefits. On the engineering side, we architected a highly scalable system, able to handle data at massive scale: hundreds of concurrent experiments, each containing millions of users. Classical testing and debugging techniques no longer apply when there are millions of live variants of the site, so alerts are used to identify issues rather than relying on heavy up-front testing. On the trustworthiness front, we have a high occurrence of false positives that we address, and we alert experimenters to statistical interactions between experiments. The Bing Experimentation System is credited with having accelerated innovation and increased annual revenues by hundreds of millions of dollars, by allowing us to find and focus on key ideas evaluated through thousands of controlled experiments. A 1% improvement to revenue equals $10M annually in the US, yet many ideas impact key metrics by 1% and are not well estimated a-priori. The system has also identified many negative features that we avoided deploying, despite key stakeholders’ early excitement, saving us similar large amounts.

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Selinda Adventure Trails, Botswana

Perspectives change when you become one with Africa, navigating an ancient waterway in the time-old tradition of the great explorers, seeing the world with new eyes... This is a unique opportunity to experience total immersion in the essence of wilderness. More about Selinda Adventure Trails

When Africa calls, she speaks to your heart. She whispers of wonders unseen and a silence that talks to your soul. Answer the call on a safari that goes beyond an expedition into the wild. It is a journey of preservation, protection and empowerment. Discover Africa as it was meant to be seen on a Great Plains Conservation safari. Change your life. Change their world. Welcome... Book Your Journey

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